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Ride the Wild Surf: Dow Jones and Premium Publishers Try to Catch the Online Ad Wave
   
    24 January 2005
SUMMARY:
 
 
Today marks the official closing of the Dow Jones acquisition of the MarketWatch investment portal, a move that will give Dow Jones lots more pages in which to place ad inventory in a surging marketplace for online advertising. It's better to have a big board than a small one when the surf gets tall and wild, but when you're defining your wave as "real" content it's going to be hard to capture all of the wave that's upon us.  Traditional publishers are scrambling to catch up with this powerful new force in their marketing mix, adding weight to the idea that indeed there can be too much of a good thing if your competition gets a hold of it before you do.

Today Dow Jones announced the closing of its USD 528 million deal to purchase MarketWatch, Larry Kramer's surging investor portal spawned without the backing of a traditional print news publisher. As noted in The New York Times' piece on Internet news sites today, Dow Jones' Gordon Crovitz says that a strong motivation behind the acquisition was the need for more pages in which to place its surging online ad inventory: There's only so much space on the typical Web page in which to squeeze a premium ad and limited user tolerance for more TV-like techniques. The simplest solution: get more pages. Recent research from Merrill Lynch cited in the article predicts that online U.S. ad budgets will surge 20 percent in 2005, up from about 3.7 percent in 2004. Traditional publishers are struggling to get surfboards big enough to catch this wave of revenues being steered away from their traditional print and broadcast outlets. Dow Jones is criticized by some as having overbid for MarketWatch, but when you know that you're outgunned by the surf the right equipment is everything.

The larger question that remains, though, is whether traditional publishers will ever catch up in the online content creation game when the leading inventories of ad-worthy content are held not by individual publishers but rather by today's search engines. With Google, Yahoo! and other major Web search engines having access to billions of pages of content that can be contextualized for ads by individuals, it's an uphill fight for many publishers to acquire a reasonable share of the inventory that is absorbing online advertising. The view of publishing as self-contained content islands worthy of ads in a sea of unworthy content is now challenged by a tsunami of ad revenue going to service providers who are more adept at getting content of any origin to find its own niche in the hands of individuals and institutions away from its roots, be they Web site, book, multimedia  or library.

So kudos to Dow Jones for getting bigger lumber on the job, a trend that we're likely to see repeated by others as the Consolidation part of Shore's 4Cs for 2005. But it's not realistic to think that every publisher faced with this approaching revenue dilemma is going to be able to go out and acquire huge amounts of publisher-derived content to sponge up this wave of advertising: there's just too much other content not for sale that's going to take it on. For those contemplating how to ride this wave here are a few things to consider while you're waxing up the board to do battle:

  • Rethink the what, when, where and how of advertising. For many publishers selling placement of online ad inventory the "what", "when," "where" and "how" of placing ads still revolves around the initially published item. Once archived the "it" of what was published remains alarmingly consistent for most publishers, with little repurposing or repackaging for reuse. If Nabisco was selling Oreo cookies this way they'd be off the supermarket shelves by now. Intelligent repurposing of content for multiple contexts in and away from its home Web site is probably the number one factor that professional publishers can take under their control to get content into more contexts that can have ad revenues associated with a given item of content. Some publishers translate this into the "rich data" context of greater indexing and contextualization, which is an important step, but with greater use of Web services to drive content into useful contexts away from a portal it's hardly the only road to new objects of content that are suitable vehicles for advertising dollars.
  • Outblog the bloggers. While the editorial content of weblogs is open to question their ability to span multiple sources of content with an editorial outlook is a key value point that's overlooked by most publishers. An intelligently edited real-time digest of what's happening with specific areas of interest and stories that I need to follow on a daily basis can come from any source - not necessarily just a single weblogger. Editors used to primping and preparing their own content have to get used to considering everything that's available for publication as fodder for the editorial process. In the process of doing so many new opportunities for placing ads in highly valuable contexts are likely to surface. A click from a Dow Jones editor may be worth far more than a click from an anonymous search engine.
  • Rethink your business model. While Gordon Krovitz' rationale for Dow Jones purchasing MarketWatch is certainly sound, it kind of sidesteps the issue of what their long-term business model will be in a world where open-ended inventory for ad placement becomes more important than a coherent and singular publication. From one angle in this scenario Dow Jones could become an ad placement network for high-quality business content of many origins. From another angle it could become a repackager of business content for individuals and institutions looking for answers to a wide variety of investment questions and concerns - more than a search engine and more than a single publication. As suggested in our paper on The New Aggregation, choosing specific attributes of publishing that complement those that have been subsumed by new aggregators such as Web search engines will be the key to profitability for many a publisher in the years ahead.

The good news is that good times are here for those trying to reap online ad revenues: the bad news is that strategies that have evolved timidly in the online space will be struggling to catch their fair share of them. With each new wave more revenues will be flowing to those who have been savvy enough to recognize that good content worthy of advertising is where individuals and institutions find it, not self-referential publications that ignore where the lion's share of content lies. Get ready to ride the wild, wild surf of today's online ad content - it's not going to get any easier for a long time to come.

- John Blossom

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