Jim Kolleger, CEO of Genesys Partners, pulled together another high-power CEO panel to focus on how the digital upheaval in the publishing industry is reaching critical mass. Jim's first barb: are we seeing the end of the WinTel monopoly? Good question, given this week's Vista launch. Second angle from Jim: the tools of the teenager are fast invading the marketplace, need to keep an eye on these tools because they are creeping in to the business world. In the 1980's IT people saw PCs as subversive resources that needed to be knocked out. How times change. Jim: what technology is driving publishing today?
Pat Kenealy, Managing General Partner, IDG Ventures and Pacific: printing, phones, radio, television, web, etc. are all part of the "mogul" theory. A "guy" can be tied to each phase, e.g. Hearst to modern newspaper chains. Moguls tend to want to stay moguls, but also staying relevant is important to them. Within a generation most of the assets are owned by the proprietors of the last generation, who tend to buy their generation's peers. We're seeing that change today, but it's a constant shift that doesn't differ from other technology-driven changes.
David Verdlin, CEO, Carat Americas & Chairman of Asia Pacific: More change in last four years of ad business as in the last forty years. In his niche six companies bought 90 percent of all television stations.
Clare Hart, EVP, Dow Jones & Company & President, Dow Jones Enterprise. Expectations are changing, kids believe that they should be able to have access to everything, in enterprise simplifying access to everything must be combined with access controls to narrow down results to most meaningful information.
Saul Hansell, New York Times: What's the opposite of mogul theory? The fragmentation and dissolution of channels. The John Malones were about being first to own a distribution channel, suddenly we're in a world of any point to any point distribtion, in television Apple TV and Slingbox and pieces of Windows Vista, any TV producer will be able to reach any audience anywhere. Becoming harder to be the first one with the satellite. Pat: when printing presses were the medium of distribution, publishers bought them. Democratization fighting big players wanting to control audiences. Saul: no question of the appetites, doesn't mean that bigs will feast on the meal that they would like to. Pat: huge buildings in NYC filled with companies that missed the wave.
John Kilcullen, President, Music, Literary & Jewelry, VNU/Nielsen Business Media: Look at Slingmedia, all kinds of implications for advertising, mobile has huge potential. For Billboard, put charts and data up, huge draw, great draw for advertisers also. On a commute in Japan, most access internet via telephone, number one application, games. Think user-generated content, if you regulate a community, ways to engage them can be very compelling. If you're thinking about broadcast experience, think about how kids and others use the platform first. It's not a broadcast model for them.
Jim: Is Vista a power play more than a platform? Saul: Yes, was at MS launch event, room packed with reporters and friends of Microsoft, couldn't find one person who was excited. After five years of work, ho-hum, there's nothing in it. This may be what happens to lot of companies who used an aging platform to protect revenues. Steve Jobs brought a suitcase of iPhones, since Macintosh had never seen no many sexy and fashionable features that meet his needs. The browser is now zoomable and highly readable, not sure if keyboard is good. Is there innovation in traditional spaces? Sure, Microsoft is a special case with eccentricities. Pat: Does Sony have to buy Apple and "bite the bullet"? Maybe so. Story from Pat: fellow used to read paper, then used Yahoo! Finance on the Web, now look at it on the phone and now Yahoo! Finance is out. Data companies need to think about where the puck is going to be. [COMMENT: This is key].
Clare: in enterprise space, what you use in personal lifestyle is what you have to respond to, expect corporate standards built around iPhone. Technology has to be an enhancer, corporations want to make things simpler and drive productivity, may the best tool win. Simplify access to make decision making more efficient.
John: Kids are getting their news online and from John Stewart, moguls are moving to follow the cool appliances. Kids don't see PCs, they see social networking and exchanging ideas. Figuring out how to connect the dots. Some say there's no way that people will watch movies and TV shows on mobile devices, but when you're addicted you'll do it. Hire contrarians and move as fast as possible to meet the trends. Quality is subjective, doesn't have to be broadcast quality, time to market is key, this will drive innovation as much as tech itself.
Jim: We'd rather be us, fast forward, Rich Zannino was just here, talk about this in terms of Vista and other platforms. Clare, need to bring in creative types, unconventional thinking, include HR to make sure that they get audiences and tech, need to be thoughtful of the culture, have to live in a world of ambiguity, have to live with coopetition, we all talk to one another because talking to our clients is number one. Need to launch products in a Google-like way, launch in beta, get feedback as soon as you can. Customer intimacy, listening to what enterprise customers are doing with all of their content, in ways that a vendor may not think of intuitively from their perspective.
Jim: every new medium is supposed to "kill" an old medium, nothing's dead, what's next. David: 2007 will be Second Life, 3D experiences will be the YouTube of 2007, just opened up a store, Reeebok has sold 30,000 pairs of shoes. First Second Life millionaire already out there. Jay-Z concert was also in Second Life, backdrop of live event became background of Second Life event, and vice versa. Saul: You can't be casual in Second Life, don't see any signs that this will be tens of millions of people. [COMMENT: Disagree, as real life becomes more challenging millions will escape into the "Matrix"-like world of SL. You'll get versions for different worldwide cultures as well.]
Clare: As Second Life generation comes into work force, have to look at these technologies, need to look at to it and thinking about it. David: Xbox Burger King xbox games launched, will sell 2 million games, franchisee gets half that, making more money on the burger, franchisees are extremely excited. Whole new business model, gaming is key, focused on it, Microsoft buying Massive is another expression. Jim" World of Warcraft is now a billion-dollar property. Pat: now investing in gaming, with 8-9 million sessions at a time, there's an ad stream and user behavior stream, compare that to a 9-dollar movie, takes away revenues.
John: Guy from GE, destructive technologies, too much complexity that we add to it, 30-pluses in the room, are we embracing the constant tinkering. Einstein everything that counts can't be counted, everything that can be counted doesn't count. Spend as much time following the behavior [COMMENT: Chase the mammoth].
Jim: Google. "Frenemies," what's up. Pat: Five years ago scared of Google, but then if we didn't have the right AOL deal we were doomed, it's a continuum. Jim: Is Google the ultimate portal? David: Web first strategy, drive to Web site first, use all sorts of links to other experiences, don't drive them to the store, go Web first. 80 percent don't get past the first page of a Google search, ad marketplace could disintermediate but don't see it, also vulnerable to disruptive technologies. Completely out of left field technologies happen, didn't see YouTube coming.
John: Vertical search, want to know all about specific domain, string all these pieces together through third party solutions key [COMMENT: equals Yahoo].
Clare: Content is everywhere, that's where the technology comes in, I may not want to go beyond page one of search results, make it more useful, make it more accessible. John: you might have a brand, think about principle of Tai Chi, use citizen news aggregation, kids using camcorders, going to concerts, becoming eyes of their generation. How you adapt to disruptive technologies, are you afraid or excited, you'll be a winner, only the paranoid survive.
Question: Podcasting, should publishers put podcasts on iTunes. Saul: Model is interesting, piggybacks well, can place individual programming, don't know how many living rooms, flash, other media will be important, BrightCove. Multi-point content is the world that we're living in, Google will sell an ad for it, one way or another. [COMMENT: Owning is the context is key, understanding the value of the context is probably more key. If you own it and don't understand it, get out of the way. Quickly.]. Pat: iPod could be a great platform for time-shifted video, iPod market growing more quickly than Mac market. John: how we integrate commercial persuasion integrated is key, not figured out yet for video weblogs.
Jim: Five years? John: Who would have predicted the iPod five years ago. Saul: Something that we haven't mentioned. [COMMENT: This is a huge problem, business is losing five-year horizons. Chasing the mammoth again.]. John: There's a producer and a consumer, everything else is up for grabs. Pat: Translation, making a global market. Clare: Content for the interested, getting content to the context that people value most as efficiently as possible. Globalization - in five years it will have a different look, more diverse audience.
Fading now, a great panel, honestly one of the best of Jim's many panels, demonstrating the aggressiveness of content providers in media and enterprise markets.
